Recent patterns and trends in crime | AQA A-Level Sociology
Updated: 6 days ago
For Specification 7192
AQA A-Level Sociology | Free Revision Notes
Estimated study time: 65 to 75 minutes
Understanding how crime is distributed and how it changes over time is an important part of AQA Crime and Deviance. This Recent patterns and trends in crime A-Level Sociology revision page brings together patterns by ethnicity, gender and social class, examines changes associated with globalisation and new technology, and considers how sociologists decide whether an apparent change in crime is real. A key skill is evaluating the evidence itself, because recorded crime can be influenced by detection, criminal justice processes and the way crime is measured.
Learning Objectives 🎯
By the end of this revision page, you should be able to:
Define the difference between a pattern and a trend in crime.
Identify source-supported recent patterns in the social distribution and changing nature of crime.
Explain how globalisation, technology and social inequalities may contribute to changing crime patterns.
Compare different sources of evidence about crime.
Analyse why recorded crime may change without an equivalent change in actual offending.
Evaluate the validity of evidence used to identify crime trends.
Revision Notes 📚
Recent patterns and trends in crime A-Level Sociology revision
AQA requires students to know the social distribution of crime and deviance by ethnicity, gender and social class, including recent patterns and trends in crime. Students must examine both the evidence and the sociological explanations for this content.
This means that studying crime trends involves more than memorising whether a crime has gone up or down.
You should be able to ask:
Which groups appear most frequently in the evidence?
Which types of crime are becoming more significant?
Has behaviour actually changed, or has its detection or recording changed?
What source of evidence produced the apparent trend?
How valid is that source as a measure of crime?
What sociological processes might explain the change?
These questions build directly on the distinction between criminal behaviour and its social definition explored in crime and deviance [Crime and deviance].
Patterns and trends are different
Although they are often discussed together, patterns and trends are not identical.
A pattern describes how crime is distributed at a particular point or across social groups.
A trend describes change over time.
For example:
a difference between males and females in recorded offending is a pattern;
an increase or decrease in a particular type of recorded crime over time is a trend;
the emergence or growth of new forms of offending can also be part of a changing crime pattern.
AQA's wording requires students to understand both.
Gender patterns in recorded crime
AQA assessment material consistently recognises gender differences in recorded offending.
The 2021 mark scheme identifies males as more likely to appear in recorded crime and accepts explanations involving:
gender socialisation;
aggression and risk-taking;
masculinity;
differences in opportunities;
criminal justice treatment;
labelling.
This means a key pattern is:
males and females are not equally represented in recorded crime.
However, the recorded pattern cannot automatically be treated as a perfect measure of actual behaviour.
Possible influences include:
genuine differences in offending;
informal social control;
differing opportunities;
stereotypes;
differences in treatment by criminal justice agencies.
You should therefore distinguish the statistical pattern from its possible causes. These explanations are covered in detail in gender differences in offending [Gender and crime].
Ethnic patterns in crime
AQA also requires students to understand differences in crime by ethnicity.
Its examination materials recognise differences between ethnic groups in:
stop and search;
arrest;
conviction;
imprisonment.
The sociological issue is whether these patterns represent differences in offending, differences in criminalisation, or some combination of the two.
Possible explanations recognised in AQA materials include:
labelling;
stereotyping;
institutional racism;
differential enforcement;
relative deprivation;
marginalisation;
differences in social control.
This is important for trends because a rise in the recorded offending of a group could potentially reflect:
more offending
but it could also reflect:
more policing or detection → more arrests → more recorded crime
The distinction is developed fully in ethnic differences in offending [Ethnicity and crime].
Social class patterns
Social class also produces a clear pattern in official crime evidence.
AQA's 2020 Paper 3 material stated that convicted offenders were disproportionately associated with deprived areas, unemployment and limited educational qualifications. However, the same item also emphasised that crimes of the powerful are less likely to appear in the statistics.
This is an excellent example of why crime trends need interpretation.
Official statistics may show a concentration of recorded offending among disadvantaged groups, but the apparent pattern may also be influenced by:
selective enforcement;
visibility of different offences;
opportunities for white-collar crime;
corporate crime;
the dark figure of unrecorded crime.
The evidence and explanations are explored in class differences in crime [Social class and crime].
Patterns are not explanations
Be careful not to confuse the evidence with the explanation.
For example:
"Working-class people are more highly represented among convicted offenders."
is a claim about a pattern in evidence.
By contrast:
"Blocked opportunities may create strain and encourage some individuals to offend."
is a sociological explanation.
Similarly:
"Males are more highly represented in recorded offending."
is a pattern.
"Gender socialisation may encourage risk-taking and aggression."
is an explanation.
A good Sociology answer should keep these two stages separate:
evidence → sociological explanation → evaluation
Changes in the nature of crime
Recent crime patterns are not only about which social groups appear in statistics.
AQA materials also identify changes in the forms and opportunities for crime.
One of the clearest changes supported by the supplied materials concerns:
globalisation;
interconnected societies;
new technologies;
cybercrime.
AQA's 2023 Paper 3 item explicitly states that increased global interconnectedness has created new opportunities for crime and new types of crime, with the development of cybercrime given as an example.
This means that trends can involve changes in what crime looks like, rather than simply a rise or fall in a fixed list of offences.
Technology and cybercrime
Cybercrime is crime made possible or facilitated through digital technologies.
AQA's 2023 material links the rise of new technology to the development of cybercrime. Its 2025 mark scheme similarly states that technological developments and new media can create new opportunities and types of crime, explicitly including cybercrime.
The important trend is therefore qualitative as well as quantitative:
technological change → new opportunities → new forms of offending
This does not mean every traditional form of crime disappears.
Instead, the range of opportunities available to offenders changes as society changes.
The role of technology is developed further in crime in a globalised society [Globalisation and crime].
New media and changing opportunities
AQA's 2025 mark scheme also recognises new media as creating new opportunities and new types of crime.
This is sociologically important because media can affect crime in more than one way.
New media may:
create new opportunities for offending;
alter the ways offenders and victims interact;
affect how crime becomes visible;
influence stereotypes and police attention.
AQA also recognises that media representations can lead to greater police targeting of particular groups or actions, potentially resulting in more arrests and higher levels of recorded crime.
This means media can affect both:
actual opportunities for crime
and
the statistics through which crime is measured.
These relationships are examined in media influences on crime [The media and crime].
Globalisation and changing crime patterns
Globalisation refers to increasing interconnectedness across societies.
AQA's 2023 assessment material states that globalisation can create:
new opportunities for crime;
new forms of crime;
opportunities connected with new technologies.
It also recognises forms including:
cybercrime;
organised crime;
economic crime;
human trafficking;
green crime;
state crime;
corporate crime.
The important principle for this lesson is that changes in society can alter the opportunity structure of crime.
As economic, technological and social activity increasingly crosses borders, crime may also become less restricted to a single local setting.
Does globalisation necessarily increase crime?
Not necessarily.
AQA's 2023 item deliberately provides competing possibilities.
It states that globalisation may create new opportunities for crime, but also notes that increased international cooperation may make some crimes easier to tackle, including international green crimes and human-rights abuses.
This gives you a useful evaluative point:
The existence of new opportunities does not automatically demonstrate that every measure of crime must increase.
Changing social conditions may simultaneously:
create opportunities for new offences;
alter policing and regulation;
increase cooperation between agencies.
This is why the explanation of a trend requires more than saying "technology changed".
Social inequality and crime patterns
AQA's realist material also connects crime with changing social conditions.
The 2024 Paper 3 item identifies Left Realist explanations based on:
inequality;
relative deprivation;
marginalisation.
It presents the argument that an unequal society may generate conditions that contribute to crime.
Relative deprivation refers to feeling disadvantaged in comparison with others or with expected standards.
Marginalisation refers to exclusion or powerlessness.
These concepts can help sociologists explain why patterns of crime may be connected with wider patterns of social inequality.
However, do not make unsupported claims that a particular national crime rate rose or fell because inequality changed unless evidence is provided.
In an examination, the explanation needs to be connected explicitly to the trend or pattern described in the question or item.
Right Realism and changing crime
The same 2024 AQA item identifies a contrasting Right Realist approach.
Right Realists emphasise rationally self-interested individuals and argue that crime can be reduced by increasing the risks associated with offending.
This provides a different explanation of changing crime rates.
From this perspective:
greater perceived risk → reduced attractiveness of offending → possible reduction in crime
This connects changing crime patterns with crime-control strategies [Crime control].
The important point is not that all decreases in crime are automatically caused by deterrence.
Instead, Right Realism offers one sociological explanation that could be evaluated against alternatives.
Surveillance and recorded trends
Greater surveillance may affect patterns in two different ways.
First, surveillance may be intended to deter offending.
Second, increased surveillance can make some offending more likely to be detected.
This creates an important issue when reading statistics.
Imagine actual offending remains unchanged, but detection becomes more effective.
Recorded crime could rise because:
same underlying offending + increased detection = more crime entering official records
This would be a rise in recorded crime, but not necessarily a rise of the same size in underlying criminal behaviour.
This distinction becomes especially important in contemporary surveillance [Surveillance].
Crime control can affect statistics as well as behaviour
Crime-control measures may therefore influence trends in at least two ways:
Behavioural effect: they may deter or prevent offences.
Measurement effect: they may increase the likelihood that offences are detected and recorded.
AQA's material on media stereotyping illustrates the second mechanism clearly. Increased targeting can lead to more arrests and therefore higher recorded crime.
This is why you should never assume:
recorded increase = identical increase in actual crime
or:
recorded decrease = identical decrease in actual crime
The evidence needs evaluation.
How do sociologists measure crime trends?
AQA mark schemes recognise several sources relevant to studying crime:
official statistics;
victim surveys;
self-report studies;
the dark figure of crime.
Each provides a different perspective on crime.
Official statistics
Official statistics are data collected and published by official bodies.
AQA explicitly identifies the Crime Survey for England and Wales among sources of official statistical data used in Sociology.
Official crime evidence can be useful because it allows sociologists to examine:
patterns;
differences between categories;
changes over time.
However, its meaning must be interpreted carefully.
Recorded crime may be affected by:
reporting;
detection;
policing;
recording practices;
prosecution;
law enforcement.
A statistic therefore measures the outcome of a social process, not simply raw criminal behaviour.
Victim surveys
Victim surveys collect information from people about their experiences of becoming victims of crime.
AQA identifies victim surveys as relevant evidence when evaluating crime statistics.
Their importance is that they do not rely entirely on crimes having reached the end of formal criminal justice processes.
They may therefore provide evidence about offences that do not appear in police or conviction statistics.
However, victim surveys do not provide a complete measure of every form of crime.
You should therefore treat them as another source of evidence rather than as a perfect replacement for official statistics.
The social distribution of victimisation is studied further in experiences of victimisation [Victims of crime].
Self-report studies
Self-report studies ask people about their own offending.
AQA includes self-report studies among evidence relevant to debates about the social distribution of crime.
Their sociological importance is clear.
If official statistics show that one social group commits considerably more crime, self-report evidence may be used to examine whether this difference is also found when respondents report their own behaviour.
However, responses depend on what individuals are willing or able to disclose.
Self-report studies therefore provide another source of evidence, but not an automatically perfect measure.
The dark figure of crime
The dark figure of crime refers to crime that does not appear in official statistics.
AQA specifically recognises the dark figure when evaluating evidence concerning crime and offending.
It matters enormously for trend analysis.
Suppose recorded crime rises.
There are at least two possible interpretations:
Interpretation A: more crime is actually occurring.
Interpretation B: a larger proportion of existing crime is now being detected or recorded.
Similarly, a decline in recorded crime does not by itself prove that every type of underlying offending declined by exactly the same amount.
The dark figure therefore limits simple conclusions drawn from official figures.
Crimes of the powerful and the dark figure
The problem becomes especially important with white-collar and corporate crime.
AQA's 2020 material states that crimes of the powerful are less likely to appear in official statistics.
If some categories of crime are systematically less visible than others, then the overall statistical picture may:
overrepresent highly visible offending;
underrepresent less visible offending;
distort comparisons between social classes;
affect apparent trends.
This is why an apparent trend may partly reflect changes in visibility, rather than just changes in behaviour.
Validity
Validity means the extent to which evidence measures what it claims to measure.
AQA explicitly identifies the validity of official statistics as a methodological issue when evaluating crime evidence.
Ask yourself:
If the aim is to measure "all crime committed", do recorded crime statistics actually measure all crime committed?
Not necessarily.
They measure crime that has entered particular official processes.
This does not make official statistics useless.
It means their meaning must be understood precisely.
A source can be extremely useful for identifying recorded trends while still having limitations as a measure of all underlying offending.
Social construction and crime statistics
AQA mark schemes recognise social construction as relevant when evaluating official crime statistics.
Crime statistics are socially produced because they depend partly on decisions such as:
what behaviour is defined as criminal;
which behaviour is reported;
which behaviour attracts police attention;
which offences are recorded;
how offenders are classified.
This does not mean the statistics are invented.
It means they are the outcome of social processes.
A sociological analysis therefore asks not only:
"What do the numbers say?"
but also:
"How were these numbers produced?"
Changing definitions can affect trends
Crime is defined by law.
If legal definitions or recording categories change, statistical patterns may also change.
This follows from the sociological understanding of crime developed in crime and deviance [Crime and deviance].
A change in a recorded crime category does not automatically mean that people's underlying behaviour has changed by exactly the same amount.
The classification of behaviour is itself part of the production of crime statistics.
This becomes especially important when studying areas such as environmental offending [Green crime], where AQA notes that definitions and laws can affect how crime is measured.
Comparing sources of crime evidence
Source | What it can show | Main issue when identifying trends |
Official statistics | Recorded crime and criminal justice outcomes | Influenced by detection, recording and enforcement |
Victim surveys | Experiences of victimisation | Do not capture every form of crime |
Self-report studies | Offending respondents disclose themselves | Depend on respondents' reports |
Criminal justice data | Arrests, convictions and other formal outcomes | Measure stages of criminal justice processing rather than every offence |
Different sources together | Different aspects of the crime picture | Sources may identify different patterns because they measure different things |
The best evaluation is therefore not:
"Official statistics are bad."
Instead, write:
"Official statistics may be useful for identifying trends in recorded crime, but their validity as a measure of all underlying offending is limited by the dark figure and the processes through which behaviour becomes officially recorded."
That is much more precise.
Recorded trends and actual trends
This distinction is central to the whole lesson.
A recorded trend
A change in the amount of crime appearing within a particular source of official data.
An actual trend
A change in the underlying amount or nature of offending taking place.
The two may be related, but they are not automatically identical.
Factors that may change recorded crime include:
changes in policing;
changes in surveillance;
changes in targeting;
changes in definitions;
changes in detection.
Factors that may change opportunities for offending include:
technology;
new media;
globalisation;
structural inequalities;
crime-control measures.
The sociologist's task is to work out how these processes interact.
Changes in offence opportunities
A useful way of organising sociological explanations is to ask what has changed in the opportunity structure for crime.
AQA material supports several possibilities.
New technology
May create opportunities for cybercrime.
Global interconnectedness
May create new forms and opportunities for crime across borders.
Inequality
Left Realists argue that relative deprivation and marginalisation may generate pressures towards crime.
Deterrence and increased risks
Right Realists argue that raising the risks associated with offending may reduce crime.
These explanations should be treated as competing sociological claims to be evaluated against the available evidence.
Changes in recording opportunities
You should also ask what has changed in the opportunity to detect and record crime.
AQA's material provides a clear example:
stereotyping or media representation → increased police targeting → more arrests → higher recorded crime.
This is important because the same process can create an apparent trend without necessarily producing an equivalent change in underlying behaviour.
The role of formal agencies in producing crime data is developed further in criminal justice processes [The criminal justice system and other agencies].
Different crimes may show different trends
Avoid treating "crime" as though it is one single behaviour.
AQA's Crime and Deviance content covers very different forms of crime, including:
cybercrime;
corporate crime;
green crime;
state crime;
crimes associated with globalisation.
A change in one type of crime therefore does not tell you that every other type is moving in the same direction.
For example, evidence concerning cybercrime cannot automatically be generalised to:
violence;
corporate offending;
state crime;
all recorded crime.
This is one reason why vague statements such as "crime is increasing" need careful qualification.
Realism and the claim that crime is growing
AQA's 2024 item states that Realists see crime as a real and growing problem and emphasise the damage that crime causes to communities.
This should be understood as a theoretical position, not as a numerical fact supplied by the source.
Left and Right Realists differ in their explanations.
Left Realism
Emphasises:
structural inequality;
relative deprivation;
marginalisation.
Right Realism
Emphasises:
rational choice;
individual decisions;
increasing the risks of offending.
These perspectives therefore illustrate how sociologists can agree that crime matters while disagreeing about why patterns change.
Why measurement matters when explaining trends
Before explaining why a trend occurred, make sure that the trend itself has been established convincingly.
A useful sequence is:
Identify the trend.
Identify the source of evidence.
Ask what the source actually measures.
Consider its validity.
Then explain the pattern sociologically.
Skipping stages 2 to 4 can produce weak answers.
For example:
"Recorded crime increased, so actual offending must have increased."
is too simplistic.
A stronger answer asks whether detection, policing or recording changed during the same period.
Evaluating evidence step by step
When you are given a crime trend in an examination, use the following questions.
1. Is the evidence about offending or criminal justice outcomes?
An arrest rate is evidence about arrests.
A conviction rate is evidence about convictions.
Neither is automatically identical to the total amount of crime committed.
2. Could the dark figure affect the pattern?
Some offences may never enter official statistics.
3. Has detection changed?
Greater police attention or surveillance could increase recorded crime.
4. Does the evidence cover all types of crime?
Some forms, including crimes of powerful groups, may be less visible.
5. Are the definitions consistent?
Different definitions or classifications can affect comparison.
6. Does another source show the same pattern?
Victim surveys and self-report studies may provide a different perspective on crime from official records.
These questions turn description into sociological evaluation.
Linking patterns to explanations
A high-quality response should move logically from the evidence to theory.
For example:
Pattern: new technologies have created new forms and opportunities for crime.
Explanation: globalisation and technological change have altered opportunities for offending.
Evaluation: the emergence of new forms of crime does not by itself prove that total crime has increased because other forms may change differently and crime-control capabilities may also develop.
Another example:
Pattern: one social group is highly represented in recorded statistics.
Explanation: this may reflect genuine differences in offending.
Evaluation: selective enforcement, labelling or differential detection may also contribute to the recorded pattern.
This is the kind of reasoning that earns AO3 credit.
Avoiding unsupported claims
AQA expects knowledge of recent patterns and trends, but accuracy matters.
Do not invent:
percentages;
dates;
crime totals;
trends in offences you cannot support.
If an item supplies data, use those data accurately.
If no data are supplied, focus on source-supported patterns and relevant sociological explanations.
A precise statement such as:
"New technology has created new opportunities and types of crime, including cybercrime"
is stronger than an unsupported claim such as:
"Cybercrime has increased by a particular percentage."
The first is explicitly supported by AQA's recent assessment material.
Key Words 🔑
Key word | Student-friendly definition | How it may be used in an exam |
Pattern | A recurring distribution or difference in crime between groups or categories. | Use when describing differences by gender, ethnicity, class or type of crime. |
Trend | A change in a pattern over time. | Use when discussing increases, decreases or changes in forms of crime. |
Recorded crime | Crime that enters official criminal justice records. | Distinguish from all underlying offending when evaluating statistics. |
Official statistics | Data collected and published by official bodies. | Use as one source for identifying crime patterns and trends. |
Victim survey | Research gathering information about people's experiences of victimisation. | Use when evaluating whether official crime data provide a complete picture. |
Self-report study | Research in which respondents report their own offending. | Use as an alternative source of evidence about offending. |
Dark figure of crime | Crime that does not appear in official statistics. | Use to question whether recorded crime measures all offending. |
Validity | The extent to which evidence measures what it claims to measure. | Apply when evaluating whether crime statistics reflect actual offending. |
Cybercrime | Crime made possible or facilitated through digital technologies. | Use when explaining changing opportunities associated with technology. |
Social construction | The idea that categories and statistics are shaped through social definitions and processes. | Use when explaining how law, policing and recording affect crime evidence. |
Hints from the Examiner Reports 💡
AQA examiner reports provide several useful lessons for answering questions about contemporary crime and evidence.
Examiner hint: Use contemporary material when it is directly relevant. The 2023 examiner report praised students who applied contemporary issues to sociological arguments because this demonstrated effective application and sociological imagination.
Examiner hint: Do not let contemporary examples replace Sociology. A useful example must still be connected to a sociological concept, explanation or argument. The 2023 report emphasised the value of sociological concepts, theories and evidence in structuring answers.
Examiner hint: Evaluation should weigh strengths and limitations and reach a reasoned judgement. AQA's 2023 report states that this gains more credit than simply adding a learned criticism or saying that two views disagree.
Examiner hint: Know specific examples of official statistics. The 2024 examiner report notes that students could have used examples including the Crime Survey for England and Wales when applying their knowledge of statistical evidence.
Examiner hint: In item-based 10-mark analyse questions, identify the separate "hooks" and develop them. Examiners warn against simply recycling wording from the item without adding sociological explanation.
Examiner hint: Keep short answers proportionate to the marks. AQA reports repeatedly note that students can lose valuable time by turning 4-mark or 6-mark questions into mini essays.
Common Mistakes ⚠️
Mistake: Treating a pattern and a trend as the same thing
Why this is incorrect: A pattern describes a distribution, whereas a trend concerns change over time.
How to improve: Ask whether the evidence is comparing groups/categories or different points in time.
Mistake: Saying recorded crime is the same as actual crime
Why this is incorrect: Recorded crime is affected by detection, policing, recording and other criminal justice processes.
How to improve: Use the phrase "recorded crime" where that is what the evidence measures, then evaluate whether it accurately represents underlying offending.
Mistake: Assuming a rise in arrests proves a rise in offending
Why this is incorrect: Arrests can rise because police attention, detection or targeting has changed.
How to improve: Ask whether the statistic measures behaviour itself or a criminal justice outcome.
Mistake: Treating crime as one single category
Why this is incorrect: Different forms of crime can show different patterns. AQA includes areas ranging from cybercrime to corporate, green and state crime.
How to improve: State exactly which type of crime the evidence concerns before drawing conclusions.
Mistake: Saying globalisation automatically increases all crime
Why this is incorrect: AQA's 2023 material recognises that globalisation creates new opportunities but may also enable greater international cooperation in tackling crime.
How to improve: Evaluate both possibilities instead of assuming the direction of change.
Mistake: Ignoring the dark figure
Why this is incorrect: Some offending is absent from official records, so statistical trends may not represent all crime.
How to improve: Compare official evidence with the possible contribution of victim surveys or self-report studies.
Mistake: Claiming the working class commits most crime solely from conviction data
Why this is incorrect: AQA explicitly notes that crimes of the powerful may be less likely to appear in official statistics.
How to improve: Evaluate selective enforcement and the visibility of white-collar and corporate crime.
Mistake: Inventing current crime statistics
Why this is incorrect: A claim about a numerical trend requires reliable supporting evidence.
How to improve: Use data given in the question or verified source material. If you do not have an accurate figure, explain the pattern without inventing one.
Exam-Style Questions ✍️
Question 1
Define a crime trend. [1 mark]
Question 2
Explain one difference between a pattern in crime and a trend in crime. [2 marks]
Question 3
Outline two reasons why a change in recorded crime may not represent an equivalent change in actual offending. [4 marks]
Question 4
Outline three reasons why evidence about crime trends should be interpreted cautiously. [6 marks]
Question 5
The table below contains a hypothetical dataset produced solely for this question.
Year | Offences recorded by an agency |
Year 1 | 800 |
Year 2 | 920 |
Year 3 | 1,040 |
Identify the trend shown in the table and explain one reason why the figures alone cannot establish that underlying offending increased by the same amount. [4 marks]
Question 6
Read Item A and answer the question that follows.
Item A
Societies have become increasingly connected through technology. New media can create opportunities for offences that did not previously exist in the same form. At the same time, agencies may develop new ways of detecting and responding to crime.
Applying material from Item A, analyse two ways in which technological change may affect crime trends. [10 marks]
Question 7
Read Item B and answer the question that follows.
Item B
Sociologists can use official statistics to identify changes in recorded crime. However, some offences never enter official records and some social groups or forms of offending may receive more attention from criminal justice agencies than others.
Applying material from Item B, analyse two problems with using official statistics to identify trends in actual offending. [10 marks]
Question 8
Read Item C and answer the question that follows.
Item C
Recorded patterns of crime may change because people's behaviour changes. Globalisation, technological developments and social inequalities can create new pressures and opportunities for offending. However, crime statistics are also shaped by decisions about detection, policing and recording.
Applying material from Item C and your knowledge, evaluate the view that changes in recorded crime mainly reflect changes in actual offending. [30 marks]
Answers and mark scheme
Question 1
1 mark for an accurate definition referring to change in crime over time.
Example answer: A crime trend is a change in the pattern or level of crime over time.
Question 2
Award up to 2 marks.
Example answer: A crime pattern describes how crime is distributed, such as a difference between social groups, whereas a trend shows how crime changes over time.
One mark for identifying the distinction and one further mark for developing it.
Question 3
Award 2 marks for each of two clearly outlined reasons.
Possible answers include:
Detection may change: increased surveillance or police activity may result in more offences entering official records even if underlying offending has not increased by the same amount.
Recording may change: changes in the way behaviour is classified or recorded can alter official figures.
Selective enforcement: greater targeting of a group or offence can produce an increase in recorded crime.
The dark figure may change: different proportions of actual offending may remain outside official statistics at different times.
One mark identifies the issue and one further mark explains how it could affect the apparent trend.
Question 4
Award 2 marks for each of three different reasons.
Possible answers include:
Official statistics measure recorded crime rather than every offence committed.
The dark figure means some offences remain outside official evidence.
Selective policing or enforcement can affect which offences enter the statistics.
Crimes of powerful groups may be less visible.
Victim surveys and official statistics measure different aspects of crime.
Self-report studies depend on what respondents disclose.
Different types of crime may show different trends, making general statements about "crime" misleading.
Changes in definitions or recording can affect apparent trends.
Three genuinely separate reasons are required.
Question 5
Trend:Award 1 mark for identifying that recorded offences increase in each period.
Award up to 3 further marks for explaining why this does not prove an equivalent increase in actual offending.
A strong response could explain that:
the table measures recorded offences;
detection or policing may have become more effective;
therefore more offences could enter official records even if the underlying level of offending did not rise by exactly the same amount.
No percentage calculation is required.
Question 6
Students should develop the two distinct ideas in Item A.
Hook 1: new opportunities
Technological change and new media may create new opportunities and types of offending. AQA recognises cybercrime as an example. This can alter the composition of crime by creating offences or opportunities that were less significant before technological change.
Hook 2: detection and response
Technology may also change how agencies detect or respond to offending. Greater detection can increase recorded crime even where the underlying change in offending is smaller. Improved control may also deter some offending.
8 to 10 marks: Good knowledge and understanding of two ways, two developed applications of Item A and clear analysis of how technology can affect either underlying or recorded trends.
4 to 7 marks: Reasonable knowledge with some successful application and analysis, although one point may be stronger.
1 to 3 marks: Limited knowledge, little effective use of Item A or largely descriptive material.
0 marks: No relevant material.
Question 7
Students should develop two separate limitations.
Hook 1: offences never entering official records
This can be developed using the dark figure of crime. If some offending is never detected or recorded, official figures measure only part of actual crime. A change in the size of the dark figure could therefore affect whether a recorded trend represents an actual trend.
Hook 2: differential criminal justice attention
Selective enforcement, policing or surveillance may make particular groups or offences more likely to be detected. Recorded crime could rise because criminal justice attention increases rather than because underlying offending changes by the same amount.
Students may also develop crimes of the powerful as an example of offending that can be underrepresented.
8 to 10 marks: Two developed applications of Item B, accurate knowledge of official crime evidence and clear analysis of the implications for trend validity.
4 to 7 marks: Some relevant knowledge and successful application but incomplete development.
1 to 3 marks: Limited understanding or little effective use of the item.
0 marks: No relevant material.
Question 8
This question requires knowledge and understanding, application, analysis and evaluation.
Indicative content may include:
Arguments that recorded change may reflect actual change
globalisation creating new opportunities and forms of crime;
technological development;
cybercrime;
relative deprivation;
marginalisation;
changing opportunities to offend;
Right Realist arguments about deterrence and changing risks.
Students may argue that social changes can genuinely alter the amount or type of offending taking place.
Arguments that recorded trends are socially produced
official statistics;
dark figure of crime;
detection;
surveillance;
selective enforcement;
stereotyping;
criminal justice processes;
social construction;
changes in definitions or recording.
These arguments challenge the assumption that official trends directly reproduce underlying behaviour.
Alternative evidence
victim surveys;
self-report studies;
Crime Survey for England and Wales;
different evidence measuring different aspects of crime.
Students may evaluate whether alternative sources support or challenge trends found in official records.
Crimes of the powerful
white-collar crime;
corporate crime;
offences being less visible or less likely to enter official statistics.
This can be used to question whether official evidence provides an equally valid picture across social classes and types of crime.
Different social distributions
gender;
ethnicity;
social class.
Students may use these to show how recorded patterns can result from a combination of genuine differences in offending and differences in social control or criminalisation.
25 to 30 marks: Sound and conceptually detailed knowledge of a range of relevant evidence and explanations. Item material is applied accurately. Evaluation explicitly considers whether recorded changes correspond to underlying behaviour, compares different evidence sources and reaches a reasoned judgement.
19 to 24 marks: Accurate, broad or deep knowledge with largely relevant application. Some explicit evaluation of the validity of crime trends is present, although parts may be incomplete.
13 to 18 marks: Largely accurate but narrower knowledge. Application may be limited and evaluation may rely on placing different evidence or explanations alongside each other.
7 to 12 marks: Limited and undeveloped knowledge, with weak application and little evaluation.
1 to 6 marks: Very limited relevant material or major misunderstanding of crime trends and evidence.
0 marks: No relevant material.
A strong conclusion should distinguish carefully between actual offending and recorded crime. Globalisation, technology and social inequalities can genuinely alter opportunities and pressures for crime, but official trends are also produced through detection, enforcement and recording processes. The most defensible judgement is therefore that changes in recorded crime may contain evidence of real behavioural change, but their meaning depends on the validity of the evidence and the social processes through which crime becomes visible.
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